CHINA IN THE TRADE WAR AGAINST THE US: TACTICAL CAPABILITIES AND PROSPECTS
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Abstract
In the spring of 2018, the United States government initiated a policy of limiting the trade presence of Chinese companies on its national market. It included revision of tariff rates for traded products, changes of investment regime. China’s response has triggered a series of consistent steps by each side of the conflict, which will have a significant impact on bilateral economic relations in the future. The article is devoted to the assessment of the positions of the PRC and the US in the dispute, their tactical tasks and strategic goals, the arsenal of tools for symmetric response and asymmetric impact over the situation. In the process of analysis, the weakness of China’s position in the trade war is demonstrated, the possibility of reducing its foreign exchange reserves and devaluation of the national currency is estimated, the consequences of such steps are forecasted. The author identifies the beneficiaries and victims of the trade conflict between the PRC and the United States. Among the developed countries, the European Union members can benefit, and Japan and South Korea may suffer losses. Developing countries will be in the camp of the losers from the conflict. The countries of Southeast Asia are particularly affected. The risks to the stability of the Ukrainian economy from commercial warfare are assessed as moderate, opportunities for increasing its trading potential and the threats for the foreign investment attraction are identified.
How to Cite
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trade war, trade conflict, China, PRC, USA, economic strategy, international relations
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