ЗМІНИ В ТОРГОВЕЛЬНИХ ПОТОКАХ МІЖ КИТАЄМ ТА США ПРОТЯГОМ ТОРГОВОЇ ВІЙНИ

Abstract

The article studies the case of the trade war between People’s Republic of China and the United States of America, exploring the causes, including issues such as trade imbalances, intellectual property rights, and market access barriers, and consequences of the conflict, including the disruptions in global supply chains, fluctuations in trade volumes, and the impact on key sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and technology. We evaluate the impact on the economies of both countries, participating in the trade war, and also analyze its influence on some other countries, which can benefit from this confrontation such as Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico. The construction of the VAR model confirmed the deep interdependence between the exports of the USA and China. Drawing on extensive research and data analysis, the article offers a balanced view of the complexity and ambiguity of the economic consequences of the trade war. It was determined that despite of numerous sanctions imposed by the countries’ governments, the outcome of the trade war has only had a temporary effect due to adaptation of the Chinese economy to these transformation, as evidenced by the worst performance in US and China trade for the US in 2018. However, already in 2019 and 2020, there was a significant improvement in US performance due to sanctions imposed on China, but in 2021 and 2022, China adjusted to changes and tariffs, so the negative balance in US trade with China began to grow again in favour of China and almost reached the levels of 2018. Thus, although the US and China have made some progress in resolving the trade war, tensions between these countries continue, and further changes in trade relations will depend on the political and economic situation in the world.