ВЕЛИКОДЕРЖАВНІ АМБІЦІЇ КИТАЮ: ОЧІКУВАННЯ, МОЖЛИВОСТІ Й ВИКЛИКИ

Abstract

On his first work day as the President of the United States, Donald Trump signed an executive order to withdraw the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a move that many analysts claim will become a golden opportunity for China to fill in as a global leader. There are expectations both in and outside China for the rising power to play a bigger role in international affairs. Indeed, in a short span of time China has assembled many of the trappings of a global power. Chinese foreign policy has become more active and assertive since the turn of the century, especially after Xi Jinping became the supreme leader of China in 2012. Major efforts to project China’s great power status in recent years include the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in 2015 and the launching of “One Belt One Road (OBOR)” in 2013. A major recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI) for decades, China has become a major global investor now, with outbound investment surpassing incoming investment for the first time in 2015. It established its first military logistics base in Djibouti in 2016, and more are likely to follow. With every major foreign policy initiative, China moves closer to achieving its great power dream. Based on interviews with scholars and officials and analysis of original documents and published works, this paper will examine internal and external debates about the proper role China plays in today’s world. While many argue that China must continue to lie low as part of the “Tao Guang Yang Hui” strategy, the proponents for China’s bigger global role have become increasingly more vocal. What exactly does China want? What are the challenges and obstacles to its great power ambition? How will China’s changing foreign policy affect itself as well as the global political economy? This policy-oriented research will have significant implications for China, other major powers, and the international community in general.